Canada's Condo Conundrum
What this video is
⚡ a 24-minute video, readable in 60 secondsThe video reports that construction stalled on 1357 Baseline Road, a planned two-tower, 402-unit retirement residence that broke ground in 2022 after co-developer Groupe Selection filed for creditor protection, and that PM Mark Carney and BC Premier David Eby held a Vancouver press conference announcing government measures to buy unsold condos and create affordable housing. Citing StatCan, CMHC, TD Economics and other sources, the video also reports steep declines in condo sales, prices and presale activity concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia since 2022. Creator Richard Coffin, presenting for The Plain Bagel, argues this amounts to a regionally concentrated 'condo conundrum' driven by intentional immigration cuts, high interest rates, and the collapse of the investor-driven presale financing model rather than a nationwide housing crash.
Confirmed: 1357 Baseline Road was planned as a two-tower, 402-unit retirement residence when ground was first broken four years ago.
Key takeaways
- Confirmed: Construction on the property began in 2022, near the peak of Canada's housing market.
- Confirmed: Co-developer Groupe Selection, a Montreal-based company, filed for creditor protection under the CCAA months after construction began.
- Confirmed: The project was originally a 50-50 joint venture between commercial real estate trust SmartCentres and Groupe Selection.
- Confirmed: There are now plans to convert the concrete skeleton into an apartment building instead of a retirement residence.
+ 101 more takeaways
- Confirmed: The remaining co-developer is struggling to secure financing to finish the project.
- Confirmed: Condo developers across Canada's major cities have been canceling projects and filing for creditor protection as demand dried up and individual investors largely disappeared [01:59].
- Confirmed: PM Mark Carney and BC Premier David Eby held a press conference in Vancouver announcing government measures to buy unsold condominiums and create affordable housing [02:18].
- Confirmed: The press conference also addressed vacant condos and announced plans to reduce developer charges [02:22].
- Take (narrator): Canada has long had a reputation for an unstoppable real estate market [03:08].
- Confirmed: Canada's population was densely concentrated in a handful of cities and had the strongest population growth among the G7 [03:14].
- Confirmed: Restrictive regulations and zoning limited housing supply in Canada [03:14].
- Confirmed: National home prices rose 55% from March 2020 to their peak in March 2022 [03:26].
- Confirmed: Residential sales activity has flatlined at under 500,000 homes a year in recent years [03:39].
- Confirmed: The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from nearly 90% in 2021 to around 50% [03:44].
- Confirmed: Unsold inventory in Canada's seven major metro areas hit all-time highs [03:44].
- Confirmed: The national price index has dropped a fifth since its 2022 peak [03:44].
- Confirmed: A Figure 4 chart shown on screen indicates unsold inventories at completion hit record highs across seven major CMAs combined [03:56].
- Confirmed: An MLS Home Price Index dashboard shown on screen indicates the aggregate composite home price index fell 20.9% from its 2022 peak through mid-2026 [04:07].
- Take (narrator): The country's housing crisis is actually quite concentrated by region rather than nationwide [04:12].
- Confirmed: Most provinces have seen prices rise since the peak, with Newfoundland and Saskatchewan showing strong growth and Alberta doing fairly well [04:23].
- Confirmed: Only two provinces, Ontario and British Columbia, have experienced a price decline since 2022 [04:35].
- Confirmed: Ontario and British Columbia are the country's two most expensive real estate markets [04:42].
- Confirmed: Condos make up 32.5% of dwellings in Vancouver and 23.9% in Toronto, compared to a 15% national average [05:12].
- Confirmed: The approval rate for same-lender refinance applications fell from a peak of 98% in Q2 2021 to 79% in Q4 2025 [05:40].
- Confirmed: Q3 2025's refinance approval rate of 70% was the lowest since data collection began in 2016 [05:40].
- Confirmed: In 2025, Canada's population dropped on an annual basis for the first time since Confederation in 1867 [06:18].
- Confirmed: Over 100,000 people left Canada in Q4 2025 alone, the largest quarterly decline on record [06:18].
- Source cited (Statistics Canada): The population decreased by around 103,500 people, or 0.25%, between Oct 1 2025 and Jan 1 2026 [06:30].
- Source cited (Statistics Canada): This followed a Q3 2025 decline of roughly 76,000, mainly from departing international students and temporary foreign workers [06:30].
- Confirmed: The population decline was 0.25% year-over-year, less than some other G7 countries [06:39].
- Confirmed: Two years earlier, Canada had its largest population increase since 1957 at 3.2%, the highest rate among G7 countries, driven by immigration [06:45].
- Take (narrator): This population decline has been intentional [07:14].
- Confirmed: Since being elected, PM Mark Carney's Liberal government has been cutting immigration numbers, targeting non-permanent residents to under 5% of the population [07:18].
- Confirmed: The number of non-permanent residents dropped 15.8% from Q4 2024 to Q2 2026 [07:27].
- Confirmed: The government announced targets of 385,000 new temporary resident arrivals in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028, aiming to reduce the temporary population below 5% by the end of 2027 [07:35].
- Confirmed: The government states it aims to attract top talent and fill critical labour gaps in high-demand occupations while maintaining focus on humanitarian cases and family reunification [07:35].
- Confirmed: Non-permanent residents still represent 6.2% of the population [08:15].
- Take (narrator): This 6.2% figure suggests more departures are likely [08:15].
- Take (narrator): Interest rates are cited as another key factor behind the housing market decline in hard-hit regions [08:25].
- Confirmed: Canada's decline in home prices began when the Bank of Canada aggressively hiked rates to combat pandemic-era inflation, spiking mortgage rates and reducing affordability [08:28].
- Confirmed: Surging interest rates in 2022 pushed mortgage payments as a percentage of median income to a peak of 63%, even as the home price to income ratio fell [08:42].
- Confirmed: Unlike in the US, most Canadian mortgages only lock rates for up to five years, so homeowners who borrowed at low rates now face renewal at much higher market rates [09:07].
- Confirmed: Delinquency rates have risen but remain below pre-pandemic levels [09:35].
- Confirmed: At their peak, benchmark condo prices in cities like Vancouver and Toronto reached above $700,000 [09:45].
- Confirmed: Small condo units were commonly selling in the seven-figure range at peak [09:59].
- Confirmed: Even today, an average representative condo requires a household income in the mid $100,000 range to afford [10:04].
- Confirmed: Canada experienced its second consecutive quarterly GDP contraction in Q1 2026, meeting the definition of a recession [10:22].
- Take (narrator): Population contraction, years of productivity stagnation, and Trump tariffs on Canadian goods have lowered confidence in Canada's economy [10:31].
- Take (narrator): Weak economic confidence can make investors and home buyers hesitant to invest life savings in condos [10:42].
- Source cited (TD Economics, Rishi Sondhi, March 26 2026 report): The report steeply downgraded Canada's 2026 forecast for annual average home resales and price growth [10:49].
- Source cited (TD Economics): The downgrade was prompted by weaker than expected 2025Q4 and especially 2026Q1 performance [10:49].
- Source cited (TD Economics): Severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada hurt activity early in the year, and BC also showed weakness despite milder conditions [10:49].
- Confirmed: Toronto condo sales have fallen over 90% from their peak, while Vancouver condo sales have fallen by nearly two thirds, both hitting multi-decade lows [11:15].
- Confirmed: Unsold inventories at completion for condominiums, mostly in Toronto and Vancouver, have increased roughly 4.5 times since 2022 [11:33].
- Source cited (Devron survey with Angus Reid): 93% of GTA condo dwellers feel Toronto needs better-quality condos and 79% believe most units use subpar materials [12:00].
- Source cited (Devron survey with Angus Reid): Only 8% of respondents strongly agreed Toronto's condo buildings have unique designs, and 86% believe Toronto's skyline lacks compelling architecture [12:14].
- Confirmed: Ontario has the highest condo reserve fund contributions in Canada at about $210/month average with a regulated 30-year funding horizon, and typical monthly fees of $420 to $650, up to $900+ [12:19].
- Confirmed: British Columbia has the highest insurance costs in Canada, averaging $105/month, with typical condo fees of $250 to $470, up to $700+ [12:19].
- Confirmed: Alberta condo fees typically run $300 to $480, up to $600, driven by newer building stock and high utility costs [12:19].
- Source cited (Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards): Quebec condo fees average $193/month province-wide and $234/month on the island of Montreal [12:19].
- Confirmed: Manitoba condo fees run roughly $0.35 to $0.50 per square foot, with heating and snow removal as significant cost drivers in Winnipeg [12:19].
- Confirmed: The Claridge Icon, shown earlier, is described as Ottawa's tallest and one of its most expensive condo buildings, near Dow's Lake [12:33].
- Unverified: Social media complaints about the Claridge Icon allege developers cheaping out, an undersized garage, and condo fees jumping 50% within the first couple of years [12:39].
- Confirmed: Most condo units in Canada are sold pre-construction, and financing often requires developers to have around 70% of units sold before construction begins [13:06].
- Confirmed: Up until recently, around 70% of pre-construction condo buyers were investors planning to rent or flip units [13:41].
- Take (Puyen Safapour, developer): End users assess livability and affordability while investors prioritize price and efficiency [13:56].
- Confirmed: By 2022, nearly 40% of condo apartments in Toronto and 34% in Vancouver were investor-owned [14:34].
- Confirmed: Assignment flips let investors sell the right to buy a pre-construction condo for profit before construction completed, estimated at around 10% of pre-construction sales [14:43].
- Confirmed: From 2015 to 2020, average condo value jumped 43.4% from presale price [15:07].
- Confirmed: In Q1 2025, resale prices fell nearly 30% from presale price as the presale flip market collapsed [15:24].
- Source cited (industry report): Preconstruction condo prices in the Toronto region need to drop another 5-7% to attract retail investors again [15:38].
- Confirmed: Individual investors used to account for at least 70% of preconstruction condo sales in the Toronto area but have largely disappeared [15:38].
- Source cited (McLean's): The outlet profiled Nizar Tajdin, a 41-year-old Montrealer who in spring 2022 put a 10% deposit on an $855,000, 468-square-foot pre-construction condo in Toronto's Forest Hill, intending to flip the assignment before completion [16:11].
- Source cited (McLean's): Developer CentreCourt kept Tajdin's deposit and sued him for $860,000 in damages, interest and legal fees, then resold the unit for $420,000, less than half his original price [16:35].
- Confirmed: Over 11,000 condo units, cited as 11,653, have been canceled in the greater Toronto-Hamilton area since the start of 2024 [17:00].
- Confirmed: New condo sales fell to 48,710 units in Q2, down 37% year-over-year and 62% below the historical norm [17:03].
- Confirmed: In June, PM Mark Carney announced federal and provincial governments in BC would acquire 2,200 unsold vacant condo units from developers, excluding Vancouver proper, with priority to Terrace and Prince Rupert [17:42].
- Confirmed: Canada introduced legislation for a one-time $284 million transfer to BC to reduce barriers to new construction, alongside a new Canada-BC Partnership on Condo Conversion [17:47].
- Confirmed: Canada will invest $2.5 billion over 10 years through the Canada Public Transit Fund for BC transit projects including the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain extension, on top of $852 million previously announced for TransLink and BC Transit [17:47].
- Confirmed: Ontario announced a plan to buy and convert 2,200 units into rental apartments in partnership with High Art Capital, adding 550 affordable rental homes to the GTA [18:05].
- Confirmed: Ontario's enhanced new housing rebate offers up to $130,000 in savings via a 100% rebate of the 8% provincial HST on new homes up to $1 million, with partial rebates up to $1.85 million [18:12].
- Confirmed: Canada has one of the lowest housing stocks per capita among advanced economies at around 423 homes per 1,000 people [18:42].
- Source cited (CMHC, June housing market report): Canadian housing starts need to nearly double to 430,000-480,000 units per year until 2035 to address the shortage [18:59].
- Source cited (CTV News): Footage shows hopeful buyers camping out in Ottawa for new homes offering a six-figure provincial tax break [19:17].
- Take (narrator): Affordability has only returned to pre-pandemic levels, which was still considered unaffordable [19:17].
- Take (narrator): The condo industry relies on investors to bridge the gap between developers and end buyers, and when prices fall these investors lose incentive to buy, hampering new unit development [19:50].
- Confirmed: Trailing 12-month condo starts dropped 36.5% in Vancouver and 74.9% in Toronto since October 2023, with Toronto seeing no new condo projects launched in Q1 2026 [20:25].
- Confirmed: In Q1 2026, 246 new condominiums were sold in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area, down 52% annually and 94% below the 10-year average for Q1 [20:36].
- Confirmed: A record-high 4,295 new condos were completed and unsold as of Q1 2026, more than double the level a year earlier and nearly five times higher than two years ago [20:36].
- Confirmed: The vacancy rate for condo buildings completed since 2000 in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton area rose to 7.9% in Q1 [20:50].
- Confirmed: Over 80% of unsold condos in Vancouver cost over $1 million [20:58].
- Source cited (CMHC): 81% of new unsold condo units in Vancouver and Burnaby are priced above $1 million, with more than 14% over $3 million in Vancouver [20:58].
- Source cited (CBC News, Amy van den Berg): Mark Carney pledged $2.7 billion in August for affordable housing measures in Toronto, funding more than 18 projects including 5,600 new rental homes [21:34].
- Take (narrator): The government is trying to bolster supply for non-luxury buildings and keep condo developers from going out of business, calling the situation messy [21:47].
- Confirmed: Real estate equity represented 42% of overall household wealth in Canada in 2023.
- Confirmed: Housing assets account for nearly half of total wealth for younger families specifically.
- Take (narrator): The government's approach is buying vacant condos to bridge the gap between developers and end buyers [22:15].
- Confirmed: Ontario is offering a temporary tax break intended to help markets through an abnormally turbulent period [22:22].
- Take (developers, cited by narrator): Developers want easing of financing terms so companies don't need to pre-sell 70% of condos to investors to get financing [22:27].
- Take (Puyen Safapour, developer): Smaller units are more expensive per-square-foot to build due to more kitchens, bathrooms, plumbing, and electrical, plus municipal development charges averaging $60,000 per suite [22:56].
- Confirmed: In the United States, most condo units are sold predominantly to primary home residents, unlike Canada [23:14].
- Prediction (TD Economics): Prices in Ontario and British Columbia would stay flat or fall before positive growth returns in 2027 [23:28].
- Open question: Prices remain fairly unaffordable compared to the rest of the country, and only time will tell how things develop from here [23:48].
- Take (Richard Coffin, narrator): Coffin concludes that Canada definitively faces a 'condo conundrum' [24:03].
- Source cited: The video is presented by Richard Coffin for The Plain Bagel [24:09].
How this brief was shaped: News Analysis / Commentary · confidence Low
Transcript opens with a specific failed Ottawa condo project as a concrete example, then pivots to national housing market decline explained through hard population and immigration stats, while OCR shows a literal StatCan data table being cited on screen. The tone mixes confirmed figures like the 2025 population drop with the creator's sarcastic editorializing, matching a confirmed-event-vs-take structure rather than a straight thesis essay or single case study.
The lens sets this brief's structure, never its facts — every claim is held to the same citation and fact-check standard.
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